REVIEW OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIA
Albert Bates, albert@ecovillage.org
I found the paper. “Climate Code Red” at http://www.carbonequity.info/ to be useful reading. The author was also interviewed by Global Public Media, and that made for a more nuanced and approachable overview of his analysis: http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2008/02/SuttonBradford.20080218.mp3, with transcript at http://www.energybulletin.net/40619.html. Like many, he has been picking up on the impatient foot-tapping of Jim Hansen and other scientists and watching the climate change acceleration phenomenon with growing alarm. Hansen’s recent webcast is available in PDF at https://admin.emea.acrobat.com/_a45839050/p89418435/. With the soundtrack it takes about 7 minutes.
If Hansen can be faulted, it is for not doing enough “what if” analysis. Science is about asking questions. One can go away from his lectures feeling like, no worries, there is still time, but in fact the observed indicators seem to disprove predictions for rates of change made just 10 years ago. IPCC-4 (FAR) is saying that positive forcing is much stronger than expected by IPCC-3 (TAR). Climate Code Red makes a strong case for FAR still understating the trend, which is an upwardly arching curve, not a straight linear progression. The more we warm, the faster we warm.
The Six Degrees http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8qmaAMK4cM cable-TV documentary provides another underscore for the importance of the discussions of tipping points. Among the useful extracts from Six Degrees was the Cheeseburger Footprint interview with Jamais Cascio, http://www.openthefuture.com/2008/02/cheeseburger_footprint_the_vid.html, a non-intimidating way of explaining the role of lifestyle and diet in climate forcing.
In late February there was also a marvelous study released by the Oil Independent Oakland Task Force: http://www.energyhttp://www.energybulletin.net/40650.html. The Oil Independent Oakland (OIO) By 2020 Task Force, composed of local, regional, and national experts including Richard Heinberg, developed a robust oil independence plan, consolidating measures from around the world that can be used locally to reduce oil consumption citywide. The action plan recommended bold initiatives to not only reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, but to also establish Oakland as a national leader in the green economy and green jobs creation, while seeking to reduce Oakland’s energy dependence.
Top Recommendations:
1. Adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol, thereby committing the City of Oakland to reduce oil consumption in the entire city of Oakland by 3% per annum;
2. Reconfigure the city into multiple Urban Villages that co-locate residential, commercial, retail, and possibly light industrial. This involves a number of major steps including updating the General Plan, design review guidelines, and broad-scale re-zoning; and
3. Develop and implement a Public Transit Master Plan, including re-installing the municipal streetcar system.
The Oakland report brings home the element of hope: we can make small changes — just 3% per year — and tip back. 7% per year would be a doubling (or halfing) every 10 years, so 3% suggests half emissions by c. 2030. Caveat: this may not be fast enough, but if taken with sink-enhancement efforts could turn us around to the right direction (net sequestration) sooner. If we plant one tree per person per day that is 6.5 billion trees daily, 2 trillion per year. Depending on how you calculate carbon stored by trees, roots and leaves, harvest or decomposition, and where you place these forests (I favor in the deserts) such an effort could re-balance our atmospheric overload well before mid-century, and possibly in less than a decade.
Albert Bates is director of the Ecovillage Training Center in Summertown, Tennessee and United Nations Representative for the Global Ecovillage Network. His website is found at http://www.thegreatchange.com. His latest book is The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook: Recipes for Changing TImes (New Society Publishers).
